Some Economic Science Of Hurricanes

As Hurricane Florence slams into the southeastern United States, hither are a few posts from the past times on the economic science of hurricanes as well as other natural disasters.

"Economics as well as Natural Disasters" (November 2, 2012)

This weblog was written as Hurricane Sandy hitting the US inward 2012. Among a number of other articles, inward this weblog I hollo how David Stromberg position out the economical arguments most natural disasters inward "Natural Disasters, Economic Development, as well as Humanitarian Aid," appearing inward the Summer 2007 number of my ain Journal of Economic Perspectives. Stromberg described how the basic framework for economical analysis of natural disasters emerged from correspondence betwixt Voltaire as well as Rousseau inward 1755 (footnotes as well as citations omitted):

"[I]n 1755 an earthquake devastated Lisbon, which was so Europe’s fourth-largest city. At the offset quake, fissures v meters broad appeared inward the metropolis center. The waves of the subsequent seismic sea wave engulfed the harbor as well as downtown. Fires raged for days inward areas unaffected past times the tsunami. An estimated 60,000 people were killed, out of a Lisbon population of 275,000. In a alphabetic character to Voltaire dated August 18, 1756, Jean-Jacques Rousseau notes that spell the earthquake was an deed of nature, previous acts of men, similar housing construction as well as urban residence patterns, position the phase for the high decease toll. Rousseau wrote: “Without departing from your bailiwick of Lisbon, admit, for example, that nature did non arrive at xx G houses of 6 to 7 stories there, as well as that if the inhabitants of this non bad metropolis had been to a greater extent than as spread out as well as to a greater extent than lightly lodged, the harm would convey been much less as well as peradventure of no account.”
"Following Rousseau’s describe of thought, disaster opportunity analysts distinguish 3 factors contributing to a disaster: the triggering natural risk lawsuit (such as the earthquake striking inward the Atlantic Ocean exterior Portugal); the population exposed to the lawsuit (such as the 275,000 citizens of Lisbon); as well as the vulnerability of that population (higher for the people inward seven-story buildings)."

"Natural Disasters: Insurance Costs vs. Deaths" (April 16, 2015)

This weblog post looked at the lists of the most destructive natural disasters that are published regularly past times Swiss Re.  I discussed why it is that the disasters amongst the greatest losses to belongings are  oftentimes dissimilar than the disasters amongst the greatest loss of life.  I wrote:

[T]he effects of a given natural disaster on people as well as belongings volition depend to a substantial extent on what happens earlier as well as afterward the event. Are most of the people living inward structures that comply amongst an appropriate edifice code? Have civil engineers idea most issues similar overflowing protection? Is at that spot an early on alert organisation so that people convey as much advance alert of the disaster as possible? How resilient is the infrastucture for electricity, communications, as well as transportation inward the human face upward of the disaster? Was at that spot an advance excogitation earlier the disaster on how back upward services would live mobilized?

In countries amongst high levels of per capita income, many of these investments are already inward place, as well as so natural disasters convey the highest costs inward damage of property, but relatively lower costs inward damage of life. In countries amongst depression levels of per capita income, these investments inward wellness as well as security are oftentimes non inward place, as well as much of the belongings that is inward house is uninsured. Thus, a 7.0 earthquake hits Republic of Haiti inward 2010, as well as 225,000 die. H5N1 9.0 earthquake/tsunami combination hits Nippon inward 2011--and remember, earthquakes are measured on a base-10 exponential scale, so a 9.0 earthquake has 100 times the shaking mightiness of a 7.0 quake--and less than one-tenth as many people choke as inward Haiti.

For example, inward the  the most recent version, run into pp. 48-49 inward this 2018 report, the most costly natural disaster from 1970-2017 inward damage of insured losses was Hurricane Katrina inward 2005, amongst $82 billion inward losses. But biggest natural disaster over that fourth dimension inward damage of lives lost was 300,000 dead from storms as well as flooding inward People's Republic of Bangladesh inward 1970. The 1,836 lives lost inward Katrina don't brand the top-40 listing of most lives lost inward a natural disaster from 1970-2017.

"The New Orleans Economy Since Katrina" (October 25, 2013)

In describing the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, I wrote:

"According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, inward the July 2005 the population of the New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner metropolitan surface area was surface area at a shade over 1.3 million, essentially unchanged since 2000. By the July 2006 count, dropped to 978,000. The population has rebuilt slow since then, upward to nearly 1.2 i G one thousand past times July 2009, but remains below the pre-storm level. What most the economic scheme of New Orleans? As I'll endeavor to explain, it's a story amongst twists as well as turns, but peradventure without whatever clear policy implication."

One of the sources I mentioned inward the weblog quotes Michael Hecht, president of the largest economical evolution way inward the region, to this effect: “New Orleans was similar a morbidly fat someone who finally had a catch position on that was rigid plenty to scare them, but non rigid plenty to kill them ... Katrina position bare that this was a metropolis as well as a region that had been inward slow, decadent decline, belike since the ’60s ...”

I too hollo an insight most natural disasters as well as housing markets from Jacob Vigdor inward "The Economic Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina,"which appeared inward the Fall 2008 number of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. I wrote:

When a metropolis is declining, low-quality housing tin move quite inexpensive. The termination is that those amongst depression incomes detect it difficult to exit the city, because although their prospects for earning income aren't good, their toll of housing is low, as well as moving to another surface area amongst a higher toll of housing seems similar a high-risk choice. But Hurricane Katrina blasted the New Orleans housing stock. Vigdor wrote: `The 2000 Census counted merely over 215,000 housing units inward the metropolis of New Orleans. By 2006, the estimated number of units had declined to 106,000, of which to a greater extent than than 32,000 were vacant. Although these vacant units appeared intact from the exterior, most of them undoubtedly required significant interior rehabilitation prior to occupation. Hurricane Katrina thence rendered two-thirds of the city’s housing stock uninhabitable, at to the lowest degree inward the brusk term.' To live sure, a substantial total of this housing stock was eventually refurbished. But to a greater extent than or less of the bicycle of low-income people living inward low-cost housing was diminished, partly because a number of those low-income people ended upward relocated inward other cities, as well as partly because much of the refurbished housing was no longer as cheap as it had previously been.

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