Venting Most The Helium Market

The US Department of the Interior has identified a listing of 35 "critical minerals," which is "a mineral identified to live a non-fuel mineral or mineral cloth essential to the economical together with national safety of the United States, the provide chain of which is vulnerable to disruption, together with that serves an essential component subdivision inward the manufacturing of a product, the absence of which would accept meaning consequences for the economic scheme or national security."

I'm constitutionally skeptical of such lists. It oft seems that when supplies of a "critical" mineral spend upward together with cost rises, in that location is a short-term spike inward articles talking nigh a "crisis." But together with then the  marketplace responds to the higher cost amongst a mixture of finding novel sources, increased recycling, or finding ways to substitute for that mineral inward a substantial number of uses. Life goes on. As 1 example, here's my write-up of "The Rare Earths Shortage: H5N1 Crisis amongst a Supply together with Demand Answer" (March 10, 2015). Yes, rare earths stay on this "critical minerals" list. Another entry on the critical minerals listing is aluminum, together with I accept previously discussed "The National Security Argument for Steel together with Aluminum Tariffs" (March 7, 2018). 

I can't claim to accept looked at all 35 items on the critical minerals list, only 1 that does perplex me is the quite peculiar marketplace for helium. Stephen T. Anderson lays out the background inward "Economics, Helium, together with the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve:Summary together with Outlook," which appears inward Natural Resources Research (December 5, 2017). Here is his quick summary of the peculiarities of the helium marketplace from the abstract:

"In 2017, disruptions inward the global provide of helium reminded consumers, distributors, together with policy makers that the global helium provide chain lacks flexibility, together with that attempts to increase production from the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve (the FHR) may non live able to compensate for the loss of 1 of the few major producers inward the world. Issues amongst U.S. and global markets for helium include inelastic demand, economical availability of helium exclusively as a byproduct, exclusively 4–5 major producers, helium's propensity to escape earth's crust, an ongoing absence of storage facilities comparable to the FHR, together with a lack of consequences for the venting of helium. The complex combination of these economic, physical, together with regulatory issues is unique to helium, together with determining helium's practical availability goes far beyond estimating the technically accessible book of clandestine resources."

These issues are non new. Back inward 2008, for example, Nobel prize-winner inward physics Robert Richardson, who shared the prize "for their uncovering of superfluidity inward helium-3," was giving speeches which ran nether headlines similar "The world is running out of helium: Nobel prize winner," (Phys.org, August 24, 2010)

In 2012, William J. Nuttall, Richard H. Clarke together with Bartek A. Glowacki were discussing the work inward Nature magazine ("Resources: Stop squandering helium," (May 31, 2012, pp. 573-575). Helium is trapped inward sure as shooting (not all) natural gas fields, only natural gas is a $1 trillion per twelvemonth manufacture together with helium is a $1 billion per twelvemonth industry. As a result, natural gas producers oft ignore helium together with allow it vent away every bit a waste product product. Once the helium is inward the atmosphere, it isn't recoverable at reasonable cost.

They signal out that, for a time, the US authorities was a primary producer together with consumer of helium. In the 1920s, the authorities designated a natural clandestine dome close Amarillo, Texas, every bit the site for a helium reserve. Starting inward the 1960s, the US authorities greatly expanded the reserve. It provided some additional certainty inward the market: helium producers knew that they had a house to sell, together with helium consumers knew they had a house to buy. Nuttall, Clarke, together with Glowacki provide this nautical chart showing how helium production ramped upward inward the 1960s to fill upward the reserve. They also exhibit inward recwent years that the reserve is existence drawn downward inward the aftermath of a 1996 law, which is why shipments accept exceeded production inward the terminal twosome of decades. They fighting that it is fourth dimension for an international helium reserve.

In July 2015, Wired mag was pointing out that helium prices accept been rising since 2000, together with it was all the government's mistake for trying to sell off together with privatize the helium reserve (The Feds Created a Helium Problem That's Screwing Science," past times Sarah Zhang, July 15, 2015). However, less than a twelvemonth after inward July 2016, Wired was reporting "That Dire Helium Shortage? Vastly Inflated" (by Brendan Cole, June 29, 2016). Partly, this was because of a uncovering of huge helium deposits inward an expanse of Tanzania. In addition, the signal is made that when helium prices rise, places where natural gas production is relatively rich inward helium--like Qatar--will accept an incentive to extract it. 

Which sounded OK until July 2017, when every bit Steven Anderson note: "On June 5, 2017, neighboring countries initiated a merchandise embargo of Qatar, which had accounted for to a greater extent than or less 32% of the global helium supply prior to the blockade ..." Overall, every bit Anderson notes: 

"Helium is an exhaustible natural resources for which in that location are express or no substitutes including for its role every bit a coolant inward state of war machine aircraft, sure as shooting types of nuclear reactors; the manufacture of optical fiber together with semiconductors; providing depression plenty temperatures for superconducting magnets; enabling modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technologies to operate; other cryogenic applications; together with inward other applications (Cai et al. 2012). Because of its unique properties, helium is expected to continue to live essential in
enabling the evolution of such critical technologies inward the futurity ...

"The American Physical Society together with Materials Research Society (2011) recommended that the US should keep a nondefense stockpile of helium, only non of whatsoever of the xiii other unloose energy critical elements (ECEs) that they identified. They suggested that helium is unique fifty-fifty inward comparing amongst other ECEs, because it is unlikely that whatsoever economical root of helium also natural gas volition live found, helium is oft vented into the atmosphere during the production together with consumption of natural gas, together with natural gas production (without separation of helium) together with consumption is probable to hand along to increase. Since then, natural gas production together with consumption inward the solid ground has increased, only that has been to a greater extent than oft than non owing to increases inward the production of shale gas, which may non accept whatsoever meaning helium content."

 At present, US policy nether the Helium Stewardship Act of 2013 is to sell the reserves, only every bit Anderson reviews the express academic research, it's clear that helium policy is on shaky ground. For example, it powerfulness brand feel to allow the helium reserve to live privatized every bit a profit-making facility. It powerfulness brand feel for the US authorities to concur a larger reserve. If it's actually hard to honour substitutes for helium, which seems possible, together with if in that location mutual depression temperature live of import together with as-yet-discovered uses for helium inward the future, nosotros powerfulness wishing to encourage natural gas producers to create together with relieve helium now, rather than existence hence quick to vent it into the air. The rattling express number of US producers, together with the fact that some of the primary international producers are inward not-always-reliable places similar Russian Federation together with Qatar, complicates the issue. Orr possibly nosotros ask to force inquiry on finding cost-effective ways to extracting helium from the atmosphere, every bit a backstop if helium prices rising dramatically.

As Anderson notes, helium is a peculiar marketplace where concentrated economical analysis powerfulness convey existent insights. As the King says repeatedly inward the quondam Rogers together with Hammerstein musical, "The King together with I": "It's a puzzlement."

Follow-up: Tim Worstall offers a useful perspective on how the rising of liquid natural gas production could live intertwined amongst the production of to a greater extent than helium.

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