Venting Virtually The Helium Market

The US Department of the Interior has identified a listing of 35 "critical minerals," which is "a mineral identified to live a non-fuel mineral or mineral cloth essential to the economical together with national safety of the United States, the furnish chain of which is vulnerable to disruption, together with that serves an essential business office inwards the manufacturing of a product, the absence of which would accept pregnant consequences for the economic scheme or national security."

I'm constitutionally skeptical of such lists. It oft seems that when supplies of a "critical" mineral reject together with cost rises, at that spot is a short-term spike inwards articles talking close a "crisis." But together with thence the  marketplace responds to the higher cost amongst a mixture of finding novel sources, increased recycling, or finding ways to substitute for that mineral inwards a substantial number of uses. Life goes on. As i example, here's my write-up of "The Rare Earths Shortage: H5N1 Crisis amongst a Supply together with Demand Answer" (March 10, 2015). Yes, rare earths stay on this "critical minerals" list. Another entry on the critical minerals listing is aluminum, together with I accept previously discussed "The National Security Argument for Steel together with Aluminum Tariffs" (March 7, 2018). 

I can't claim to accept looked at all 35 items on the critical minerals list, only i that does perplex me is the quite peculiar marketplace for helium. Stephen T. Anderson lays out the background inwards "Economics, Helium, together with the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve:Summary together with Outlook," which appears inwards Natural Resources Research (December 5, 2017). Here is his quick summary of the peculiarities of the helium marketplace from the abstract:

"In 2017, disruptions inwards the global furnish of helium reminded consumers, distributors, together with policy makers that the global helium furnish chain lacks flexibility, together with that attempts to increase production from the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve (the FHR) may non live able to compensate for the loss of i of the few major producers inwards the world. Issues amongst U.S. and global markets for helium include inelastic demand, economical availability of helium alone as a byproduct, alone 4–5 major producers, helium's propensity to escape earth's crust, an ongoing absence of storage facilities comparable to the FHR, together with a lack of consequences for the venting of helium. The complex combination of these economic, physical, together with regulatory issues is unique to helium, together with determining helium's practical availability goes far beyond estimating the technically accessible book of hugger-mugger resources."

These issues are non new. Back inwards 2008, for example, Nobel prize-winner inwards physics Robert Richardson, who shared the prize "for their regain of superfluidity inwards helium-3," was giving speeches which ran nether headlines similar "The world is running out of helium: Nobel prize winner," (Phys.org, August 24, 2010)

In 2012, William J. Nuttall, Richard H. Clarke together with Bartek A. Glowacki were discussing the occupation inwards Nature magazine ("Resources: Stop squandering helium," (May 31, 2012, pp. 573-575). Helium is trapped inwards certainly (not all) natural gas fields, only natural gas is a $1 trillion per twelvemonth manufacture together with helium is a $1 billion per twelvemonth industry. As a result, natural gas producers oft ignore helium together with permit it vent away equally a waste matter product. Once the helium is inwards the atmosphere, it isn't recoverable at reasonable cost.

They betoken out that, for a time, the US regime was a primary producer together with consumer of helium. In the 1920s, the regime designated a natural hugger-mugger dome close Amarillo, Texas, equally the site for a helium reserve. Starting inwards the 1960s, the US regime greatly expanded the reserve. It provided some additional certainty inwards the market: helium producers knew that they had a house to sell, together with helium consumers knew they had a house to buy. Nuttall, Clarke, together with Glowacki provide this nautical chart showing how helium production ramped upwardly inwards the 1960s to fill upwardly the reserve. They also present inwards recwent years that the reserve is existence drawn downwards inwards the aftermath of a 1996 law, which is why shipments accept exceeded production inwards the final twosome of decades. They fighting that it is fourth dimension for an international helium reserve.

In July 2015, Wired mag was pointing out that helium prices accept been rising since 2000, together with it was all the government's error for trying to sell off together with privatize the helium reserve (The Feds Created a Helium Problem That's Screwing Science," past times Sarah Zhang, July 15, 2015). However, less than a twelvemonth later on inwards July 2016, Wired was reporting "That Dire Helium Shortage? Vastly Inflated" (by Brendan Cole, June 29, 2016). Partly, this was because of a regain of huge helium deposits inwards an surface area of Tanzania. In addition, the betoken is made that when helium prices rise, places where natural gas production is relatively rich inwards helium--like Qatar--will accept an incentive to extract it. 

Which sounded OK until July 2017, when equally Steven Anderson note: "On June 5, 2017, neighboring countries initiated a merchandise embargo of Qatar, which had accounted for closed to 32% of the global helium supply prior to the blockade ..." Overall, equally Anderson notes: 

"Helium is an exhaustible natural resources for which at that spot are express or no substitutes including for its role equally a coolant inwards armed services aircraft, certainly types of nuclear reactors; the manufacture of optical fiber together with semiconductors; providing depression plenty temperatures for superconducting magnets; enabling modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technologies to operate; other cryogenic applications; together with inwards other applications (Cai et al. 2012). Because of its unique properties, helium is expected to continue to live essential in
enabling the evolution of such critical technologies inwards the time to come ...

"The American Physical Society together with Materials Research Society (2011) recommended that the USA should keep a nondefense stockpile of helium, only non of whatever of the thirteen other unloose energy critical elements (ECEs) that they identified. They suggested that helium is unique fifty-fifty inwards comparing amongst other ECEs, because it is unlikely that whatever economical rootage of helium too natural gas volition live found, helium is oft vented into the atmosphere during the production together with consumption of natural gas, together with natural gas production (without separation of helium) together with consumption is probable to proceed to increase. Since then, natural gas production together with consumption inwards the dry soil has increased, only that has been to a greater extent than oft than non owing to increases inwards the production of shale gas, which may non accept whatever pregnant helium content."

 At present, US policy nether the Helium Stewardship Act of 2013 is to sell the reserves, only equally Anderson reviews the express academic research, it's clear that helium policy is on shaky ground. For example, it mightiness brand feel to allow the helium reserve to live privatized equally a profit-making facility. It mightiness brand feel for the US regime to concur a larger reserve. If it's actually hard to regain substitutes for helium, which seems possible, together with if at that spot mutual frigidness live of import together with as-yet-discovered uses for helium inwards the future, nosotros mightiness wishing to encourage natural gas producers to hit together with salvage helium now, rather than existence thence quick to vent it into the air. The really express number of US producers, together with the fact that some of the primary international producers are inwards not-always-reliable places similar Russian Federation together with Qatar, complicates the issue. Orr perchance nosotros bespeak to force query on finding cost-effective ways to extracting helium from the atmosphere, equally a backstop if helium prices rising dramatically.

As Anderson notes, helium is a peculiar marketplace where concentrated economical analysis mightiness convey existent insights. As the King says repeatedly inwards the one-time Rogers together with Hammerstein musical, "The King together with I": "It's a puzzlement."

Follow-up: Tim Worstall offers a useful perspective on how the rising of liquid natural gas production could live intertwined amongst the production of to a greater extent than helium.

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