Here's a prissy bright illustration from dorsum inward 2001. The Bush direction has merely taken office, as well as a Department of Defense Linville Wells at the the States Department of Defense was reflecting on the then-forthcoming "Quadrennial Defense Review." He wanted offering a pungent reminder that the entire do of looking ahead fifty-fifty merely 10 years has frequently been profoundly incorrect. Thus, Wells wrote this memo (dated Apr 12, 2001):
- If yous had been a safety policy-maker inward the world's greatest mightiness inward 1900, yous would conduct maintain been a Brit, looking warily at your age-old enemy, France.
- By 1910, yous would live on allied amongst French Republic as well as your enemy would live on Germany.
- By 1920, World War I would conduct maintain been fought as well as won, as well as you'd live on engaged inward a naval arms race amongst your quondam allies, the U.S.A. as well as Japan.
- By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were inward effect, the Great Depression was underway, as well as the defense strength planning measure said "no state of war for x years."
- Nine years afterwards World War II had begun.
- By 1950, United Kingdom of Great Britain as well as Northern Ireland no longer was the world's greatest power, the Atomic Age had dawned, as well as a "police action" was underway inward Korea.
- Ten years afterwards the political focus was on the "missile gap," the strategic epitome was shifting from massive retaliation to flexible response, as well as few people had heard of Vietnam.
- By 1970, the superlative of our interest inward Vietnam had come upwards as well as gone, nosotros were get-go détente amongst the Soviets, as well as nosotros were anointing the Shah equally our protégé inward the Gulf region.
- By 1980, the Soviets were inward Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran was inward the throes of revolution, at that topographic point was verbalise of our "hollow forces" as well as a "window of vulnerability," as well as the U.S.A. was the greatest creditor patch the globe had e'er seen.
- By 1990, the Soviet Union was inside a yr of dissolution, American forces inward the Desert were on the verge of showing they were anything but hollow, the U.S.A. had larn the greatest debtor patch the globe had e'er known, as well as almost no ane had heard of the internet.
- Ten years later, Warsaw was the working capital missive of the alphabet of a NATO nation, asymmetric threats transcended geography, as well as the parallel revolutions of information, biotechnology, robotics, nanotechnology, as well as high density unloose energy sources foreshadowed changes almost beyond forecasting.
- All of which is to enjoin that I'm non certain what 2010 volition aspect like, but I'm certain that it volition live on rattling lilliputian similar nosotros expect, therefore nosotros should innovation accordingly.
The questions of how to predict for what yous don't expect, as well as how to innovation for what yous don't expect, are admittedly difficult. The mightiness to pin smoothly to human face upwards the novel challenge may be ane of the most underrated skills inward politics as well as management.
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