Here's a overnice brilliant illustration from dorsum inward 2001. The Bush direction has simply taken office, too a Department of Defense Linville Wells at the the States Department of Defense was reflecting on the then-forthcoming "Quadrennial Defense Review." He wanted offering a pungent reminder that the entire practice of looking ahead fifty-fifty simply 10 years has oft been profoundly incorrect. Thus, Wells wrote this memo (dated Apr 12, 2001):
- If y'all had been a safety policy-maker inward the world's greatest mightiness inward 1900, y'all would direct keep been a Brit, looking warily at your age-old enemy, France.
- By 1910, y'all would endure allied amongst French Republic too your enemy would endure Germany.
- By 1920, World War I would direct keep been fought too won, too you'd endure engaged inward a naval arms race amongst your one-time allies, the United States of America too Japan.
- By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were inward effect, the Great Depression was underway, too the defence strength planning criterion said "no state of war for 10 years."
- Nine years later on World War II had begun.
- By 1950, UK of Britain too Northern Republic of Ireland no longer was the world's greatest power, the Atomic Age had dawned, too a "police action" was underway inward Korea.
- Ten years later on the political focus was on the "missile gap," the strategic epitome was shifting from massive retaliation to flexible response, too few people had heard of Vietnam.
- By 1970, the pinnacle of our interest inward Vietnam had come upwards too gone, nosotros were commencement détente amongst the Soviets, too nosotros were anointing the Shah every bit our protégé inward the Gulf region.
- By 1980, the Soviets were inward Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran was inward the throes of revolution, at that topographic point was speak of our "hollow forces" too a "window of vulnerability," too the United States of America was the greatest creditor state the basis had e'er seen.
- By 1990, the Soviet Union was inside a twelvemonth of dissolution, American forces inward the Desert were on the verge of showing they were anything but hollow, the United States of America had larn the greatest debtor state the basis had e'er known, too almost no 1 had heard of the internet.
- Ten years later, Warsaw was the working capital missive of the alphabet of a NATO nation, asymmetric threats transcended geography, too the parallel revolutions of information, biotechnology, robotics, nanotechnology, too high density liberate energy sources foreshadowed changes almost beyond forecasting.
- All of which is to enjoin that I'm non certain what 2010 volition facial expression like, but I'm certain that it volition endure rattling niggling similar nosotros expect, thus nosotros should excogitation accordingly.
The questions of how to predict for what y'all don't expect, too how to excogitation for what y'all don't expect, are admittedly difficult. The mightiness to pin smoothly to human face upwards the novel challenge may be 1 of the most underrated skills inward politics too management.
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